Sunday, November 4, 2007

The bear case for GGC

  1. decreasing demand in US (v.s. Canada) associated with housing slow down
  2. Royal Group acquisition risks: integration problems (potential in any acquisition) and big time debt (see below)
  3. Earnings and operating income dropping quarter after quarter, despite reduced costs.
  4. Debt:Equity ratio 3.9 (mostly long term debt) and current ratio 1.3-- the former very high for industry, the latter suggesting some margin of safety.
  5. Market cap only 360 M, increasing overall risk.

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