Friday, November 16, 2007

Banco Popular-- BPOP-- The bull case

By far the dominant bank in Puerto Rico, even more so since the downturn in the financial sector has crushed the local Savings & Loan competition. The company provides brokerage, insurance, and consumer lending services. It operates through four main subsidiaries: Popular Puerto Rico, Banco Popular North, Popular Financial Holdings and EVERTEC, a data-processing unit.
strong balance sheet:
BPOP v.s. Industry average
P/E Ratio (TTM) 9.40 1.10
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs 17.70 16.60
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs 9.10 6.70
Price to Book (MRQ) 0.74 3.81
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 0.94 4.30
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 8.00 9.60
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 8.90 21.60
(note: the P:FCF ratio is the critical fundamental for assessing a bank's potential for survival during economic downturns)

Great Dividend yield 6.9%

Stock price off 50% from it's 52 week high.

Off 69% from 5 year high of $29 (current price $9)

admirable net margin (5 year avg) 14.4% vs. 12% for industry

EV/EBIDTA <10 suggesting an attractive takeover target

Insiders are buying shares during the decline from $17-->10

Gurus are buying shares: Brandes bought at 18.5. Pzena bought at 17.5.

Leverage is less than peers: BPOP Industry Avg
LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 2.30 v.s. 3.77
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 3.26 v.s. 4.03

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