I haven't owned any commodity companies for over 2 years now (fortunately) as I find them too hard to analyse. There are too many other eyes and brains trying to figure out where oil/nat gas are going and no matter how well managed these resource co's are, the share price will follow where the commodity futures drag them. So often commodity pricing is based on external factors that are impossible to predict and out of a company's control. I put the vast majority of them in the "too hard" pile. Mining stocks are no different IMHO. Not to mention that they are far out of my circle of competence.
That said, there is an exception to every rule and COP may be the one. My portfolio probably needs some natural resource exposure. At the "right" price (bargain basement), I wouldn't be too upset if I got into a diversified oil/gas major a bit too early.
Mr. Buffet quadrupled his stake in COP in the last quarter. BRK now owns about 6% of the company (84 M shares) bought at an average price of $80/share. COP is trading in the low 50's and has dipped into the 40's time to time over the last 4 months.
I know the company quite well and have owned it twice before. I'd be sorely tempted to scale back in s-l-o-w-l-y if the share price fell below $45/share. With a dividend yield of 4% or so, I'd be prepared to sit on this one for 5 years+. I wouldn't be surprised if I might have to...
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