3 gurus to watch

Read the Kiplinger article here.

I do take issue with the tone of the article (albeit I admit I'm a fan of Mr. Berkowitz and less so Mr. Hussman).

"...too many of the stocks they deemed undervalued were actually overvalued" refers to some stocks picked by Chris Davis, Bill Miler and Bill Nygren-- all, BTW, who have 10 year+ track records that handily beat the market. So.... they underperformed (badly) for a year or two and suddenly they're bums? That's short term, Wall St herd type thinking and I utterly reject it. Warren Buffett has underperformed in the past and is underperforming now (measured over a short time frame). Was he "just lucky" as some academics insist, still pushing the efficient market hypothesis down our throats? Has he "lost his touch" as pundits so vociferiously state, each time BRK drops a bit or goes out of fashion?

The answers to these questions are clear to me.

There is a reason why top performing mutual funds are usually the worst performers over the subsequent 5 years, particularly those with a value bent to them: during bear markets, good and even great bargains take time to be recognized.

Stop chasing short term market returns. Very few people do it well.

l

ps I have nothing against Mr. Hussman. He is obviously very bright and knows it. I read his market commentary regularly. What concerns me is his fascination with the macroeconomic picture and how it impacts his investment choices. I'm a macroeconomic agnostic. I don't think ANYONE can figure it out. If they do make a profitable decision and even a few in a row, they were lucky. These folks usually eventually lose their shirt because they've convinced themselves that they've figured it out. Investors with the best long term track records try to ignore such questions as "Will the USD drop further? What's going to happen to oil/fuel prices? Interest rates? etc etc". Just think about what has happened to just those 3 variables in the last 18 months! Did ANYONE get that right?