Friday, October 10, 2008

Time to buy the survivors

I'm buying businesses today with the following "safe and cheap" characteristics:

  • ample liquidity
  • wide moat
  • manageable or no debt
  • trading at or less than tangible book value P/E <8
  • high insider ownership (15% or higher)

Wow-- never in my life has there been so many opportunities. Rather than reel with the sheer number of them I've chosen to concentrate on a few:

BAM-- on sale like it never has been. I don't use conventional metrics to value this company.
SEB-- same
MKL
BBSI
PHG

I'm spending hours pouring over financial reports so I can decide the best way to allocate my limited capital. I may sell BPOP as its share price has been propped up by an improbable upgrade. I would love to own more CX, LYG, AXP and CKI.TO; however, these companies are being conspicuously quiet (well, other than Cemex) and there is a palpable opacity to their current liquidity situation that makes me nervous. All four have potential to be great investments and I'm monitoring them closely.



I'm putting in bids for some or all of them today and adding slowly over the next year to my stake in DIA, the diamonds of the DOW. I think the DOW has potential to drop into the 7000's and that would be great.

l

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