Thursday, July 10, 2008

Random comments about the VCI portfolio

Cemex CX is a great global infrastructure investment play and it's cheaper now than it has been in the last 10 years based on P/E, P/B and P/CF valuations. The full analysis has been done earlier.

NYSE Euronext NYX has my attention now. Like most of Jim Cramer's stock picks, it is a great company that was "hot" at the time he liked it and now it is definitely not as investors assume that bear market trading volumes will continue FOREVER and also that NYX only receives income from trading (it sells market info amongst other revenue streams). It is acquiring overseas exchanges, most recently a significant portion of the Qatar Bourse. Operating margins are fat at 28%. Valuation is finally compelling with a P/E ratio (trailing) of 14 v.s. industry avg of 26 and P/B of 1.2 (1) and D:E ratio of only 0.05. I'm still doing my homework on this company but I will be sorely tempted by $40/share or less (it was trading at over $100/share one year ago and I calculate a FMV of $80/share). Downside as I see it so far is a relatively modest dividend 1.2%, the complexity of the business is very high and the future cash flows are difficult to predict as they are so levered to the markets.

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