Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Update on some stocks discussed previously

Looks like 1990 all over again.

1. Georgia Gulf GGC-- may well be a falling knife as it falls below $4. Institutional investors don't like the long term debt from the Royal acquisition. Insider Sun Securities Fund and Sun Advisors has been buying up shares aggressively. I suspect that GGC will be acquired soon but it is possible Chapter 11 is the final outcome. Entry at this point is only for folks with cast iron stomachs. Lesson from this investment: when troubled economic times loom large, avoid smaller companies with recent acquisitions and large debt (even long term), particularly in cyclic business sectors.

2. Harley Davidson HOG-- may be making political inroads into China which could open a huge market for the company. Large amount of insider buying (1 officer buying $5 Million worth of stock in November). I'm buying more at $40

3. DELL-- still hated by the street despite excellent cash flow, global footprint and very attractive product line and minimal debt. I'm buying more at $20.

4. COLM Columbia Sportswear-- has dropped to $38 for no rational reason other than being a midcap in a sector that is loathed (retail). Global, little debt, big time insider ownership. I will wait a few weeks to allow the dust to settle and add to my position for long term, hopefully in the mid 30's and a P/E of less than 8 (unheard of for a profitable brand name apparel retailer, at least in my memory!)

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