Sunday, May 3, 2009

As I've mentioned before, I'm slowly raising cash in order to exploit upcoming opportunities... I'm anticipating a large correction in the next 6-9 months. The market has become irrationally exuberant once again.

My estimate for AEO's intrinsic value is around $15-20/share, so I plan to sell it into strength.

SPLS, a company with management that I've admired and owned for the longer term, is also approaching my guess for its intrinsic value of around $25/share. I'll sell it too soon. I wouldn't hesitate to buy it back again at <$15/share.

Targets I'm monitoring closely, all trading at least 30% above my entry position:

Y (I already own some)
CVL.UN
BDI.UN
PDLI
FACT (I already own some)
PFE
URI
KMX (own it, want more!)
BBEP
BBSI (I already own some)
COP

There are others as well. Yes, I know that many of the above are ideas shamelessly stolen from the revered (for excellent reasons) Mr. Klarman and Mr. Berkowitz. Imitation is definitely the most sincere form of flattery. I also believe that I deeply understand their investment thesis in these companies and my conviction to own them comes along with that understanding.

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