Sunday, November 2, 2008

Along the same lines


Since Buffett is buying up a railroad--- he now owns 18% of Burlington North-- maybe you can too.

GSH Guangshen Railway serves the Pearl River Delta in mainland China. It has miniscule debt for a railroad (Debt to capital ratio 13%) and is a predominately commuter railroad (i.e. less sensitive to economic cycles). It has a wide economic moat simply because the Chinese government will not allow competition to arise. It owns the only railway connecting HK and mainland China to boot. EV/EBIDTA is 14, comparable to NA railways. Dividend is 3% yield. P/B x P/E is 10.

I would definitely not buy GSH now. Morningstar has calculated a FMV of $28/share. I would be interested in buying shares if it dropped during a market scare to $15/share or less.

Another analysis here.

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