My view on HOG

Concerns about inventory aside, I think that HOG is currently undervalued by the market and represents an excellent long term opportunity. I would not expect much movement in the stock price for the next 8 quarters but as value investors we don't care much about that anyway, remember? Current dividend support (which may increase in subsequent quarters) may reward investors for waiting for the capital appreciation in this extremely well managed company. Many fortunes have been lost by under-estimating the American consumer's resilience.

International growth potential is significant for HOG's products and IMHO will reduce reliance on the North American consumer. A healthy generation of new products in the pipeline along with high margin merchandise/accessory sales in the HD stores are also reassuring. The downside risk of investing in HOG is 10-20% share price decrease, barring a major global recession.

I have already bought some stock at $49 for my wife's RRSP. I have a bid in for more at $47 for my holding company. I expect that further dips could take the price to the low 40's and if it does, I will quite happily buy more. I estimate that share price will appreciate 7-18% avg over the next 5 years. I've set a goal price of $80 which can be revised per the fundamentals discussed below.

Good luck with your own analysis of HOG.

Next-- the long case for GGC Georgia Gulf Corp. A much "deeper" value stock with more risk and a higher potential reward than HOG.